(NEWS UPDATE USA FAST)-- National and swing-state polls show a tight race, with Trump's support holding steady even as his Democratic opponent changes.
 |
| Vice-President Kamala Harris is effectively tied with Donald Trump in the latest polling, less than two months out from the US election. Photograph: AP |
A New York Times-Siena College national poll has Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied, effectively, going into the final weeks of the election campaign, ratcheting up the stakes for the presidential debate on Tuesday.
The poll, out Sunday, puts Trump ahead of Harris by an extremely slender 48% to 47%. But that one-percentage-point margin is within the poll's three-point margin of error, making an either-way victory for both candidates on November 5 as good as highly plausible.
Also, a CBS/YouGov poll published Sunday showed a similarly tight contest in key swing states. Harris is ahead narrowly in Michigan, 50%-49%, and in Wisconsin, 51%-49%, while she runs even with Trump in Pennsylvania.
The Trump campaign has had its ups and downs in the months since Democratic President Joe Biden exited the race back in July. But the newest polls suggest the Trump core has held.
The NYT poll underlines once more that while the opinions of Trump are more or less fixed, many voters feel they need to learn more about Harris. About 28% of likely voters expressed a need for more information about the Democratic nominee, whereas for Trump, the proportion was only 9%.
That may make Tuesday's presidential debate a pivot point. Harris will have the opportunity to build on her policies as she debates Trump for 90 minutes. Because this is such a tight race, it would not take much for either candidate to move the needle considerably in their direction.
Following the most recent polling, Jen O'Malley Dillon, the campaign chair for Harris, wrote to supporters on Sunday, "As Vice-President Harris has said since day one, we are the underdogs in this race. We have a lot of work to do to make sure we win this November and that will require us to continue aggressively raising money.".
Dillon repeated that the Electoral College is tilted toward the Republican ticket, even while the Biden-Harris ticket received more votes than any other in history; that came down to about 45,000 votes across key battleground states. She expects similar narrow margins this November.
In one question, the CBS poll asks about the candidates' mental and cognitive fitness to serve as president, in which Harris leads Trump big. Additionally, 71% said Trump's remarks about the vice president were offensive. But huge factors of the economy and inflation are leaners for voters toward Trump. Among white non-college-educated voters, Trump is favored over Harris to give working-class Americans economic opportunities 53%-27%.
These latest results of the NYT poll are very much consistent with another survey published at the end of July, just after Biden announced he wasn't going to seek re-election. That also showed a one-percentage-point lead for Trump within the margin of error.
In the seven key swing states expected to decide the election, polls have long been tight. A new poll shows Harris barely ahead in Wisconsin 50 percent to 47 percent; in Michigan, 49 percent to 47 percent; and in Pennsylvania, 49 percent to 48 percent.
A separate NYT/Siena poll last month, focused exclusively on swing states, showed Harris ahead of Trump by four percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent.
Since taking Biden's place at the top of the Democratic ticket, Harris has been hitting the campaign trail hard, but has restricted her unscheduled appearances and access to the media.